Portraits of Felix Kulov and others from the Ferghana.Ru Gallery, Kyrgyzstan

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When Felix Kulov resigned as prime minister on December 19 and the Jogorku Kenesh (national parliament) voted down his nomination for premiership again, the question of whether or not Kulov would join the opposition became central for Kyrgyz politicians and political scientists.

Several nuances reiterated the assumption that Kulov will join the opposition now. For example, he did not know that the president never intended to nominate him for endorsement by the Jogorku Kenesh for the third time. Kulov even asked President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to nominate him again when the latter decided to nominate someone else. When Kulov discovered who his ex-partner in the tandem had nominated, he said, "What can one say about a man who does not keep his word?". The remark is clearly another indication of how hurt Kulov must have been.

Moreover, these words indicate that there must have been some sort of pact between the president and Kulov concerning the return of the latter to premiership at all costs. As a matter of fact, Kulov himself all but said so when the parliament turned him down for the first time. "The president and I expected it," he said, still hopeful then. "Deputies' fear to lose their seats on the parliament in the wake of resignation of the government is having its effect. Still, the president gave his word to keep nominating me until the parliament gave in and voted "aye".

Former prime minister of Kyrgyzstan Felix Kulov was offered ambassadorship to Russia, sources close to Kulov told Lenta.Ru. Kulov is thinking it over. Kulov will visit Moscow one of these days for meetings and consultations. Insiders do not rule out the possibility of a connection between the trip and the offered assignment. Like his Cabinet, Kulov resigned in December 2006 and remained acting prime minister until recently. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev nominated him for premiership but the parliament turned Kulov down twice in a row. Launching the presidential campaign in 2005, Bakiyev and Kulov made an informal pact. Kulov dropped out of the race paving the way for Bakiyev in return for premiership in the future government. The pact resulted in what became known as a tandem of Bakiyev and Kulov.

Indeed, Bakiyev's actions to restore Kulov as the premier would have been logical bearing in mind that the government resigned under the former Constitution, the one that did not leave formation of the Cabinet to the parliament. It was resignation of Kulov's government that forced the Jogorku Kenesh to adopt a new Constitution in the face of the threat of its own disbandment.

By and large, Kulov has sound reasons to take offense. Right after the March Revolution in 2005 the two leaders signed an accord that Kulov would become the premier if Bakiyev came in first in the presidential race. More importantly, the accord included a clause to the effect that resignation of one signatory for whatever reason was to be automatically followed by resignation of the other. We see now that Bakiyev broke his word.

If Kulov does feel slighted and has taken offense, there are at least two options left him.

Kulov may join the already existing opposition. Unfortunately, its integrity is questionable, and that makes this turn of events unlikely. The camp of enemies of the president is too diverse. Indeed, what can unite intellectual Omurbek Tekebayev with businessman Omurbek Babanov or ex-colonel of the KGB Kubatbek Baibolov with journalist Melis Eshimkanov? Also significantly, Kulov did not join the opposition when it was staging rallies in Bishkek last November.

Kulov's other option comes down to establishment of an autonomous movement of the opposition aspiring for victory in presidential election. Why what happened did come to pass is actually clear. The Kyrgyzes have a saying to the effect that "two ram heads cannot be boiled in one and the same cauldron". It applies to the situation where there are two strong politicians at the pinnacle of political power, a state of affairs that cannot last. Number two will always envy number one, and number one will always be wary and suspicious of number two. Forget the principle of checks and counterbalances that were supposed to make the tandem work. It did not happen. Number one rid himself of number two. For how long?

There is, of course, the possibility of a wholly different turn of events - that Kulov will abandon politics altogether - but it is even less likely then the first option.