Independent Uzbek political scientist Rafik Saifullin spoke at the Moscow Carnegie Center on March 21. Much as they wanted to, Moscow journalists and experts did not hear anything new from Saifullin. His speech lasted 1.5 hours but contained little by way of information - save for several hints.

Presenting himself as an independent political scientist, Saifullin is not as independent as he likes others to think. He headed the Uzbek Presidential Institute of Strategic Studies not long ago. Anyway, he made several points in his speech.

Thesis One. Islam Karimov will either run for president again in December 2007 or take some other position in the upper echelons of state power (what position it will be does not matter as long as he retains state power). Ordinary people in Uzbekistan do not care about politics and vote "with their stomachs".

Resolved to fill these stomachs and cajole voters, the government of Uzbekistan has planned some measures that will hopefully improve living standards in the country. Salaries of budget sphere employees will be doubled in 2012 (!). Development of small businesses will be given an additional impetus. The authorities are convinced that seeing their living standards go up, the population will show its appreciation by voting for Karimov again.

Thesis Two.ÿThe Uzbek authorities will brook no "color revolutions" or other means by which the people may decide to exercise its will. Karimov is the one and only guarantor of stability in the country. He formulates staff policy, issues decrees and resolutions of the government (and for the government), personally supervises enforcement of police control, expulsion of dissent, and persecution of the opposition.

Thesis Three. Uzbekistan depends on nobody at this point and will continue depending on nobody in future. The political scientist kept repeating this Karimov's pet motto. Cooperation with foreign countries requires valid motivation. Tashkent will be friends with Washington only as long as and to the extent that it will benefit Uzbekistan to be friendly. It won't hesitate to quarrel with Moscow if and when it decided that the latter deserves it.

According to Saifullin, Uzbekistan views Russia and Putin as an indisputable authority nowadays. Judging by the statistics the political scientist referred to, however, 50% and more of the Russian companies operating in the Uzbek market are "swindlers". Criminal charges were pressed against some "profiteers" eager to buy unique Uzbek assets for a song so as to sell them at a profit.

Saifullin admitted that he did not know whether Uzbekistan benefited or suffered from appearance of major Russian businesses. "Wimm-Bill-Dann turned up in Uzbekistan and promptly ousted all local dairies from the market," Saifullin said. "Quality of its own products is not something to write home about. So, we re wondering if it is a blessing or a curse."

Uzbekistan is determined to continue step-by-step economic reforms in line with "its own unique way" different from Chinese, Singaporean, or Russian. The problem is, these reforms have been under way for sixteen years already, and Uzbek economy is farther from the free market now than when they were only beginning.

The last note. "Does it ever occur to Uzbekistan to enlist the services of political and economic advisers from abroad (from Russia, for example) to accelerate the reforms?" Russian political scientist Sergei Markov wanted to know. "We do not need anyone standing by with a rifle and telling us what to do," Saifullin replied. "Uzbekistan will work out its own strategy of behavior and development."