As far as the southern part of Kyrgyzstan is concerned, late March and early April this year are like early March 2005. The situation now is different from what it was like at the onset of the Tulip Revolution two years ago of course, but certain resemblance is nevertheless undeniable. The opposition is as determined nowadays as it was then. State power structures - the ones that absorb the shock of street protests - are putting up a fight the way they did then. Or so it seems. Here is a piece by Alisher Saipov, journalist and publisher, on the tactic employed by the regime and on the differences between Kurmanbek Bakiyev's and Askar Akayev's followers.

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Irked by the outcome of the parliamentary election, Kyrgyz opposition launched protest actions in Osh, Qorasuv, Uzgen, and Jalalabad in early March 2005. Mustered by the authorities, budget sphere employees and activists of presidential parties in their turn arranged a series of rallies against the opposition and in support of Askar Akayev.

Students and teachers numbering thousands marched down the streets waving hand-written posters against "destabilization and provocations" and demanding "peace and tranquility". Law enforcement agencies did their part too, interfering with demonstrations staged by enemies of the regime and forming protective rings around administrative buildings. Opposition activists were put under surveillance. What all of that ended in is common knowledge. The opposition controlled all of the southern part of the country by the middle of the month. The White House in the capital city of Bishkek was overrun on March 24.

History seems to be repeating itself. Activists of pro-government political parties, students and professors, budget sphere employees arrange rallies against President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's political enemies and, first and foremost, against the United Opposition Front headed by ex-premier Felix Kulov. Supporters of the president elevated to the pinnacle of political power in the country by protests are repeating the slogans of Akayev's followers in Osh, Jalalabad, and Batken ("We want peace and stability" and "We support the policy of the president elected by the people"). This time, however, all these actions are organized in advance i.e. before the mass protest actions the opposition has scheduled for April 11.

Bakiyev's supporters in the meantime do differ from Akayev's.

Activity of pro-Akayev forces in March 2005 was restricted to rallies alone. Offices of the opposition were not raided then (but the United Opposition Front office in Osh was, on March 29, 2007). it was the other way round then. The radical opposition (whose activists walk the corridors of power now) raided administrative buildings.

Akayev's definition of Kyrgyzstan as "an isle of democracy" was fairly correct in March 2005. At the very least, journalists had been able to cover what was happening without being put under pressure. Nobody had bullied AKIpress-Ferghana news agency to convene a press conference of supporters of the president the way it was coerced on the day the United Opposition Front office was raided and wrecked.

Correspondents of all media outlets (pro-government and pro-opposition, local and foreign) had been able to ask what they would of representatives of the regime and the opposition in March 2005. Bunches of women had never disrupted press conferences then - the way they did to the accompaniment of foul language on March 30. Despite their affected patriotism and dedication to the master, Akayev's supporters knew that journalists were just doing their job which involved asking questions on both sides of the barricades. It had never occurred to the former to assail and batter journalists, the way it supposedly happened to Talantbek Sopuyev of September TV network in Japalabad on March 31.

Generally speaking, Bakiyev's supporters are much more aggressive and intolerant with regard to representatives of the media and dissenters than Akayev's followers were. The impression is that even law enforcement agencies are somewhat frightened by this aggressive demeanor.

It's just possible that the hired gangs of young athletic-looking men and drunk women will manage to keep under the lid the information the regime would like suppressed. One should not forget, however, that silence does not signify respect. What it signifies is amoral nature of the authorities that discredit themselves.

Alisher Saipov, Ferghana.Ru news agency representative in Osh, Kyrgyzstan