President of Kazakhstan revived the idea of a closer integration of Central Asia countries all over again a short while ago. Apart from geographic closeness that is certainly a factor not to be dismissed, the process will be facilitated by historic and cultural sameness of the peoples living in the region from time out of mind. With the exception of Farsi-speaking Tajiks, all other peoples (Uzbeks, Karakalpakians, Kazakhs, Kyrgyzes, Turkmens) speak Turkic languages. Their national histories are so closely intertwined as to be actually inseparable from one another. The question of what it is that Central Asian countries require to be able to execute an even closer rapprochement stipulates lots of answers. Every one of the five countries in question is aware of both pros and cons of integration.

Kazakhstan

Independent Kazakh economic observer Tulegen Oskarov is convinced that his country's closer economic and political integration with Central Asian neighbors involves more advantages than drawbacks. Kazakhstan enjoys a lot of fuel resources while Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan rely on hydroelectric power plants alone. "We are mutually complementary in energy production, agriculture, and in practically every sector of industry or economy you'd care to mention. There is another pro for Kazakhstan that should be taken into account. This country is drastically short of man power while its neighbors have a lot and then to spare." (The vacuum Oskarov speaks about is filled by Uzbek, Tajik, and Kyrgyz menial workers.)

It follows that the regional immigration from the countries Nursultan Nazarbayev suggested integration with has both advantages and drawbacks for Kazakhstan. Gastarbeiters from neighbor countries are more fervent believers than the locals. They frown on socializing with the Kazakhs beyond what is absolutely necessary, and particularly on mixed marriages. "It is better all the same than using the Chinese to recompense for the shortage of man power," Oskarov said. That is why official Astana is taking steps to ease foreign workers' integration into Kazakh society. Several hundred thousand illegal immigrants from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan were legalized in 2006.

That political unification is a corollary of economic integration is clear. Administrative barriers eventually become an obstacle impeding economic development. Kazakh banking system is a vivid example. According to Oskarov, Kazakh banks are exporting capitals into nearby post-Soviet republics. Investments in Uzbek economy in the meantime encounter serious obstacles and barriers. Uzbek banking sector is practically closed for Kazakh banks nowadays. The customs and boundary regimes between the two countries leave much to be desired as well. "Crowned with all-permeating corruption, all of that makes normal business deals between our countries all but impossible," Oskarov said. "Political integration will solve a great deal of problems but our neighbors are smart enough to realize that free enterprise implies democratization and nonconformity." Hence the problems regional integration regularly encounters. As for Kazakhstan itself, Oskarov regards his country as ready for it.

Kyrgyzstan

Professor Zainidin Kurmanov claims that Kyrgyz national leadership and general public have always taken Nazarbayev's calls for integration close to the heart. "Kyrgyzstan and other CIS countries have a great deal in common - the Russian language, history, and Soviet legacy. We know that they are not really expecting us in the West or in the East, but we know our worth in the post-Soviet zone and particularly in Central Asia," he said.

Kazakh businesses have deeply entrenched in Kyrgyzstan and other countries of the region. According to Kurmanov, however, Kyrgyzes do not expect Kazakhstan to absorb their small country. Official Bishkek does not even care that realization of Nazarbayev's integration plans will cost Kyrgyzstan part of its sovereignty. It will have to be delegated to suprastate bodies of the new structure the way it happened in the European Union. "We've done it already when we joined the UN," Kurmanov shrugged. "Being a member of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation and CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization, Kyrgyzstan delegates certain powers to their suprastate bodies for the sake of national interests. In short, it's fine by us."

There are only two political problems that may interfere with Kyrgyzstan's participation in the new regional alliance or whatever. First, the relations between the countries of the region are relations between senior and junior partners. "Unfortunately, relations like in the European Union where tiny Luxembourg equals Germany in terms of rights and powers are what we lack here in Central Asia," Kurmanov said. Second, political systems of Central Asian countries are too different. "Viewed against the background of our authoritarian neighbors, Kyrgyzstan certainly looks a black sheep. Our neighbors' political tastes affect our leaders who in their turn try to become local Turkmenbashi too. If this whole integration scheme is supposed to establish some sort of a medieval khanate, then we don't want it," Kurmanov concluded.

Tajikistan

"I wouldn't say that all Central Asian republics are equally ready for new forms of cooperation at this point," Suhrob Sharipov, Director of the Center of Strategic Studies, told this newspaper. As things stand, integration is undeniably more pragmatic within the framework of bilateral relations, say, between Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. Where integration on a broader scale is concerned, Sharipov perceives more questions than answers to them. Will this new structure stabilize relations between its members? Tajikistan has certain problems in the relations with Uzbekistan to thrash out: border problems, customs regulations, the use of water resources. Travelling to the other country requires a visa even though the Organization of Eurasian Economic Cooperation which Uzbekistan joined a year ago insists on a visa-free regime. Uzbekistan even set up minefields on the border with Tajikistan. How all these problems will be solved within the framework of the new structure is anybody's guess for the time being.

Turkmenistan

As for Turkmenistan's participation in the so far hypothetical Central Asian union, experts are extremely skeptical on this score. "Judging by public statements of the new president of Turkmenistan, this country is determined to retain its neutral status," said Andrei Grozin, Director of the Department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan of the Institute of CIS Countries. "Turkmen leadership continues Saparmurat Niyazov's foreign policy centered around bilateral relations... The way I see it, not even Nazarbayev views Turkmenistan as a partner in his integration projects." Grozin is convinced that it will certainly take Turkmenistan long to grasp advantages of a closer integration with neighbors.

Uzbekistan

Uzbek political scientist Farhot Tolipov believes that there exists a score of objective factors promoting Uzbekistan's integration with other Central Asian countries. Obstacles are numerous too, but they are thoroughly subjective. Tashkent's latest foreign political steps show that Uzbekistan has postponed the integration idea in favor of concentration on completion of state construction. Uzbek small and medium businesses in the meantime are objectively interested in free movement of capitals and commodities. Oligarchic capitals on the other hand object to the opening of borders seeing the status quo as a guarantee of continuation of their own dominance in the Uzbek market.

Experts' views on readiness of Central Asian countries for a common market and a closer political union show that a certain background for it does exist. There is no saying, however, when the countries in question succeed in sorting out the existing political and economic discord.

Author: Alexander Zhelenin

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 14, 2007, p. 20