The last month of the summer 2007 reactivated political life in Kyrgyzstan. Two prominent adversaries of the Kyrgyz regime are the talk of the day. They are Felix Kulov, former premier who became the opposition leader, and Bermet Akayeva, ex-president's daughter who insists on running for the parliament.

Kulov and Akayeva found themselves in the focus of attention of Kyrgyz law enforcement agencies because of what had happened this April.

Kulov ended up in the opposition once his career in civil service was over - quite unexpectedly even for himself. Kulov rallied forces of the opposition into the movement he called the United Front For Worthy Future of Kyrgyzstan. The United Front made the announcement that 100,000 supporters would amass in the central square of Bishkek on April 11 to insist on peaceful devolution and adoption of the new constitution. The permanent rally ended on April 19 when the protesters were dispersed for rock throwing at the soldiers guarding the Government House (this is what the authorities said). Riot control means (stun grenades and teargas) were used. Central Bishkek was free of the opposition literally and figuratively by April 20.

The Prosecutor General's Office initiated a criminal case and had the National Security State Committee run the investigation. Law enforcement agencies moved against Omurbek Suvanaliyev (United Front chief-of-staff), Omurbek Abdrakhmanov (Business Union chairman and member of the Movement For The Reforms!), and Adilet Aitikeyev (activist of the United Front youth wing) on April 26. All three were detained but eventually released on the condition that they remain within reach. Kulov was summoned and interrogated too. He was released when the investigation found out that not a single United Front document was bearing his signature meaning that Kulov could not be held responsible for its actions. Formally, at least.

Akayeva's saga was taking place meanwhile in the Kemin district of Kyrgyzstan. Everything began with her decision to run for the parliament when the Central Electoral Commission annulled her brother Aidar's mandate for systematic absence from meetings of the Jogorku Kenesh (national parliament). Akayeva was registered as a candidate for deputy from her native Kemin district but one of her adversaries complained of violation of the residential qualification and Akayeva's registration was voided. (The republican Code of Election demands that a candidate for the parliament spend five years preceding the election living in Kyrgyzstan.)

Akayeva flew into rage and tore into pieces the verdict voiding her registration right in the courtroom on April 24. Her wrathful supporters literally made the Kemin District Court pass a polar decision but the Supreme Court would back the first verdict afterwards. Disturbances were reported in the course of the proceedings (Chui Prosecutor Makeshov said windows were shattered, doors broken down, and the judge manhandled) and responsibility for them was pinned on Akayeva. Criminal charges under three articles of the Criminal Code (interference with effectuation of justice; contempt of court; and theft, destruction, damage, or concealment of documents and seals) were pressed against Akayeva on May 5. The ex-president's daughter was released on the strength of the recognizance not to leave.

These charges were officially presented to Akayeva on August 2. Kulov was charged with organization of mass riots (that's how the authorities appraised the April 19 rally) the day before. Both defendants plead innocent. Both stay within reach of the law enforcement agencies. According to some sources, Akayeva may draw two years imprisonment and Kulov ten years.

Boris Makarenko, Senior Assistant General Director of the Center of Political Technologies (Russia), told Strana.Ru that "the charges pressed against ex-president's daughter Akayeva and opposition leader Kulov should be regarded from the standpoint of the vicious power struggle taking place in Kyrgyzstan."

But why would the authorities take their time to press charges against Kulov? (After all, charges against other activists of the opposition were pressed without delay.) Arkady Dubnov, Vremya Novostei observer and an undisputable authority on Central Asia, suspects "some inner motives behind the attempt to discredit Kulov right now... something to do with his idea of a Russian-Kyrgyz confederation."

There may be some other motive involved. The spearhead for a referendum on the Union of Kyrgyzstan and Russia promises the authorities pickets and rallies in Bishkek during the forthcoming summit of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation and official Bishkek does not want the summit soiled.

Analysts in the meantime do not think that Kulov will be imprisoned again. "Try as I might, I cannot imagine Kulov behind the bars in connection with these charges," Dubnov said. "The regime will never summon the guts to imprison him again. Absurdity of the charges he is facing is unquestionable and so is the goal of the whole campaign. Kulov's enemies want him removed from Kyrgyz politics for good. They know that they have to push him to accomplish that. Threats must be sufficiently serious to compel him to seek a deal with the authorities: he is out of politics in return for their guarantees that they leave him alone."

Sanobar Shermatova, member of the RIA-Novosti Expert Council, does not expect Kulov to be thrown behind the bars either. "The authorities are trying to weaken him politically, to isolate him, and to prevent Kulov from returning into politics," Shermatova said. "They do not want Kulov's supporters to stage the protest actions they promised for the summit of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation."

Kulov said at his press conference on August 3 that he wanted no protest actions in Kyrgyzstan during the summit. "That's my position," Kulov said. "I have already informed members of the spearhead collecting signatures on the petition for the referendum for an alliance with Russia. I will ask them again to abstain from all and any protest actions." Some observers suspect that Kulov's words at the press conference were a reaction to the summons to the National Security State Committee two days before when charges in connection with April 19 had been pressed against the opposition leader.

Shermatova was in Bishkek during the April events and therefore knows what she is talking about. She does not think it will be easy for an unbiased court to prove Kulov's role of the organizer. "Kyrgyz TV ran a live broadcast on the events in Bishkek on April 20 night," Shermatova said. "Judging by the broadcast, proving the guilt of the opposition will be a chore."

The expert is convinced in the meantime that Kulov's defense will certainly make use of the following argument: if what happened on April 19 was mass rioting and opposition leaders should be tried for it, then the same definition should be applied to what had happened in March 2005 in the course of what became known as the Kyrgyz revolution. Indeed, the March 2005 events were much worse - with numerous casualties, looting, and felonious attacks. "The opposition will claim that what the authorities appraise as mass rioting was in fact continuation of what has been happening since March 2005," Shermatova said. "I do not think the authorities will come up with a counterargument. I do not expect Kulov to be imprisoned... If, however, the authorities do decide to go for it, it will be a godsend for the opposition. Organizations and parties will immediately rally around this politician. And by the way, not a single Kurmanbek Bakiyev's political adversary has been imprisoned yet."

The problems Akayeva and Kulov are facing are so similar that observers wonder if they perhaps decide to make an alliance. Dubnov and Shermatova do not think that they will. "Kulov and the Akayevs represent two different political structures. There are no reasons for them to unite," Dubnov said. "I'd say that there are lots of politicians in Kyrgyzstan who regard these two structures as archaic, as something the country as it now is does not need. Very many will try to sell this alliance idea to Kulov and the Akayevs in the hope that they will go for it and make it easier for their enemies to finish them off. There are no political parties based on ideologies in Kyrgyzstan nowadays. What parties do exist are based on the clannish principle. Kulov has regional politicians with him. The Akayevs' supporters reside in the Kemin district. The Kemin district cannot be isolated from the rest of Kyrgyzstan, can it?"

"They all promote different tasks and objectives," Shermatova said. "Akayeva wants a seat on the parliament as a means of returning into politics. Akayeva represents herself and nobody else. There are no parties or coalitions, there are no political forces behind her... As for Kulov, it's different with him. He is trying to formulate new tasks and goals of his oppositionist group. Kulov is trying to become one of the opposition leaders in Kyrgyzstan. The problems Akayeva and Kulov face are similar, but every one of them handles them in her or his own manner."