Bishkek Press Club approached prominent Kyrgyz politicians and political scientists for their opinions on what should the country expect in the new political season this autumn. Here are several quite diametric forecasts.

"Count on escalation of political tension"

Ata-Meken Assistant Chairman Duishen Chotonov predicts escalation of political tension in the country because the authorities (he believes) hold back the constitutional reforms. General public entertained different expectations with regard to the Aksy investigation than what it was eventually told, and that certainly makes life hard for the president. Moreover, the opposition activist is convinced that "a new discord" is fomenting in the Jogorku Kenesh (national parliament).

Lawmaker Omurbek Tekebayev is convinced that sale of objects of the national energy sector under any handy pretext is the "surprise" the regime intends to spring on the country in the new political season. "The authorities will never abandon this idea. All political developments will be centered around the energy sphere which is the backbone of Kyrgyz economy," Tekebayev said.

Osmonbek Artykbayev, another Jogorku Kenesh deputy, expects activization in the new political season and radical action in response to it on the president's part. "Kyrgyzstan is in trouble where economic situation is concerned, and the price-rise will have its toll soon," Artykbayev said. "People will start demanding from the government to take the situation in hand but personally I do not think it capable of that. This state of affairs may therefore foment a confrontation between the regime and the opposition."

Artykbayev expects some new faces in the opposition camp this autumn. "There will be some new faces there all right. Not exactly new perhaps... These people have been in the background before now, but they are about to emerge into the spotlight and become much more active. And yes, some new political organizations will appear."

Political scientist Sergei Masaulov believes that everything will begin after September 10 and that the political season per se will be started off by speculations over disbandment of the parliament. Commenting on the opinion aired by some experts that formation of a "new opposition" might begin in Kyrgyzstan soon, Masaulov said Almazbek Atambayev was the likeliest center of political gravity.

Anticipating reaction of the authorities, the political scientist suggested three scenarios. "First, the authorities may recall the divide-and-rule principle and try to split the opposition. Second, they may tempt some opposition leaders and activists with offers of a place right within the establishment in Bishkek, not something like ambassadorship to a distant country. Third, April 19 taught some national leaders to count on security structures. It means that maintenance of law and order may be used as a pretext to put

opposition under pressure," Masaulov said.

The political scientist does not rule out the possibility that civil society itself may become oppositionist. "Sure, it may join the opposition. It does have certain resources, you know."

Asia Sasykbayeva of Interbilim, one of the leaders of civil society, also expects deterioration of the relations between the regime and its antagonists this autumn. According to Sasykbayeva, it is bound to happen for several reasons.

Reason one: food price spiral that affects even bread. "When shortage of fruits and vegetables is encountered this autumn, people will feel this difference and their mood may turn nasty," Sasykbayeva warned.

Reason two: lamentable state of affairs with human rights. Recent sentences to two participants of April 19 events proved the judiciary spineless and at the regime's service. Two protesters were tried and convicted in utter violation of the acting legislation and even though their guilt was never established.

Reason three: threats to free enterprise. As things stand, development of businesses in Kyrgyzstan is a sheer impossibility. "There will be no economic development as long as private property is not protected by the state itself," Sasykbayeva said. Only business ventures of the underworld or the ones controlled by senior state officials stand a chance in Kyrgyzstan nowadays, and Sasykbayeva does not expect any good from them.

Reason four: skewed mentality. People are convinced that they are free to keep looting and commandeering what does not belong to them. Episodes where land is seized continue even now, tension is mounting, and Sasykbayeva does not see how the authorities intend to cope with the evil they themselves gave birth to on March 24, 2005.

"The authorities themselves sicced the people in March 2005. They are about to discover how difficult changing mentality again is," Sasykbayeva added.

Bishkek Press Center asked Sasykbayeva what she thought about the part non-governmental organizations would be playing in the new political season. "They will keep trying to exert influence with the anti-constitutional policy promoted nowadays through statements, pieces in media outlets, speeches, and meetings with power structures," she said.

"No disturbances"

Parliamentarian Ulugbek Ormonov does not expect any mass disturbances in Kyrgyzstan this autumn but points out that the opposition does have an ace up its sleeve to play against the regime. As far as the lawmaker is concerned, the opposition will almost certainly use the current "bread crisis" to promote their interests and objectives. "It is a calamity issue nowadays and particularly in villages," Ormonov said. "City dwellers buy bread by the loaf and the price-rise has not affected them as bad as it has villagers who buy flour by sackfuls." Unless the authorities address the problem and have it solved fast, the whole executive branch of the government and the president himself will lose trust of the population, the lawmaker warned. He is convinced in the meantime that the Cabinet is capable of coping with the problem and therefore depriving the opposition of a cause to stir unrest.

Jogorku Kenesh deputy Kabai Karabekov also expects a tranquil political season. "The constitutional reforms are halted. The government is not working. What do you expect in a situation such as this?" Karabekov said before repeating that there was no use waiting for any surprises from the authorities or the opposition.

"Time is running out, and the authorities and the opposition alike will concentrate on preparations for the forthcoming election," the lawmaker said. "They will be too busy to spare the time for attempts to even old scores or promote any strategic objectives." Karabekov added that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev had strengthened his positions some by strengthening state machinery.

"Prime Minister Atambayev will step down"

According to Tekebayev, deterioration of the latent conflict between Bakiyev and Prime Minister Atambayev has the potential to rearrange the political terrain. "One of them is bound to snap soon," Tekebayev said. Asked to elaborate, the lawmaker said the head of state and his prime minister were too different to work in a team without conflicts.

Commenting on the assumption that formation of a "new opposition" under Atambayev might begin this autumn, Tekebayev was quite skeptical of Atambayev's chances to succeed.

"Remember what his followers kept saying when he accepted premiership? Very many were calling his decision unilateral - and that's putting it mildly," Artykbayev shrugged and said that it had cost Atambayev his followers' trust then and he had nowhere to go now. "Should he succeed in whatever he has planned and the president finds it to his liking, Atambayev will remain the premier. He will have to step down and try his luck in the opposition again otherwise," the lawmaker said.

"Kyrgyzstan will have a new prime minister this autumn," political scientist Nur Omarov said. "A lot depends on how the regime will go about engineering Atambayev's resignation. Offered sufficient moral or political recompense, Atambayev will never join radical opposition. I'd say he will position himself somewhere in between the president and radical opposition."

Ar-Namys Assistant Chairman Emil Aliyev is similarly convinced that Atambayev's premiership is approaching its end. Aliyev expects resignation of Atambayev before endorsement of the 2008 budget. "It's a chance for the president to get rid of Atambayev. To improve one's own image, one has to rid himself of those nearby every now and then. I reckon that the president will pin the blame for the price-rise on the government." Aliyev believes that Atambayev will step down of his own volition even if the president chooses not to demand his resignation for some reason.

As a matter of fact, Aliyev does not rule out the possibility of an alliance between Atambayev and Felix Kulov. "Kyrgyzstan is in trouble now, and the situation is so problematic that all sagacious politicians should unite in the name of the people and the Kyrgyz state," Aliyev said.