Omurbek Tekebayev, Ata-Merken leader, deputy of the Jogorku Kenesh, and its ex-chairman, may become the leader of the united party of the opposition. Experts view Tekebayev as capable of challenging President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in the next presidential race.

Kyrgyz political parties launched preparations for the forthcoming parliamentary election. Its date is to be officially announced following the referendum on the new Constitution scheduled for October 21. Experts do not expect the turnout at the referendum to exceed 10-15%, but few in Kyrgyzstan doubt that the referendum will be proclaimed valid all the same.

The snap parliamentary election may take place this December, leaving politicians without a chance to prepare for it properly. The acting legislation does not permit establishment of political blocs and alliances on the eve of referendums.

The president alone can have a political party registered inside of a single hour. "Small political parties stand no chance of making the Jogorku Kenesh," Tekebayev said. "This is why there is only one option left them all, pro- and anti-presidential parties alike. They have to join i.e. become absorbed by the already registered parties."

The opposition coalition is expected to comprise 7-8 political organizations including Tekebayev's Ata-Merken, Ak-Shumkar (led by Kubatbek Baibolov and Temir Sariyev), and Azimbek Beknazarov's Asaba. Choice of the leader is the prerogative of leaderships of these political parties. Tekebayev calls their clear reluctance to single out and elevate anyone the worst problem. The acting legislation demands that members of the coalition withdraw from other political forces. "There is no saying at this point what party will become central. It is the terms of the merger that we are discussing," Tekebayev said. Moreover, leaders of the merging political parties will have to compile a common list of candidates. "It is names in the top four positions (5% of the whole list) that quarrels may begin over," Public Politics Institute President Muratbek Imanaliyev said.

Experts agree in the meantime that consensus of the opposition reached without delays will make Tekebayev's chances formidable. Source in the presidential administration even claims that Tekebayev is seen as Bakiyev's principal rival in the forthcoming presidential race. The president did what he could, of course, and established Ak-Jol just like his Russian and Kazakh counterparts.

State officials, lawmakers, and others immediately joined the new party - Director of the Presidential Administration Medet Sadyrkulov, acting mayor of Bishkek Danijar Usenov, State Secretary Adahan Madumarov, lawmakers Askar Salymbekov and Alisher Sabirov, and Kyrgyz-Russian Slav University Dean Vladimir Nifadiev. Bakiyev himself withdrew from Ak-Jol the moment it was officially registered. "Making use of the administrative resource, the president all but pushes some political parties into a merger with the ruling party," Tekebayev shrugged. "And yet, it is not as monolithic as one might think. As a matter of fact, some politicians who support the president in general refuse to apply for membership in this party."

Kyrgyz politicians believe in the meantime that the merger will benefit the political parties that wouldn't have scaled the 5% barrier otherwise. Moreover, it is usually less than 50% of the population that votes in Kyrgyzstan, and the actual barrier for the parties aspiring for seats on the Jogorku Kenesh will therefore amount to approximately 10% of whoever voted.

Victoria Panfilova, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 19, 2007, p. 6. © Translated by Ferghana.Ru