What caused disillusionment in the Tulip Revolutionaries? Temir Sariyev, one of the leaders of the Kyrgyz opposition, is trying to answer this question in his piece in Izvestia. Sariyev is convinced that President Kurmanbek Bakiyev engineered a political situation where political forces and even the population of whole regions of the country may denounce the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary election as rigged.

"When the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan in March 2005 toppled Askar Akayev's regime and installed Bakiyev as the new head of state, everyone sincerely believed that he would launch the necessary democratic reforms, make everything transparent, and order a war on corruption. It gradually dawns on the people now that what happened in 2005 was a banal takeover and that the new president is only concerned with redistribution of property and assets and solidification of his own positions," Sariyev wrote.

A referendum took place in Kyrgyzstan on October 21. The new Constitution suggested for approval at the referendum greatly enhances presidential powers. Official reports estimate the turnout at the referendum at 82% which is a plain impossibility. There are 2.7 million voters in Kyrgyzstan but over 700,000 of them (25%) are abroad.

Legitimacy and validity of the referendum was recognized despite protestations from the observers who reported gross violations of the procedures.

The new Constitution does not refer to usurpation of state power as a grave crime punishable by the law. The president wields the power to appoint four key ministers (defense, foreign affairs, interior, and national security), governors, heads of local administrations, and judges without any consultations with the parliament or government.

The referendum over, Bakiyev disbanded the parliament and set the date of the snap parliamentary election for December 16. He is doing everything in his power to make sure that only one political party makes the parliament - Ak Jol or Road White, the party he himself established and became the leader of despite the Constitution. State officials are forced to join Ak Jol under the threat of firing.

The new Code of Election was endorsed at the referendum too. This is another document drafted in such a manner as to let into the parliament as few political parties as possible. The Code of Election abolished the majoritarian and left the proportional system alone. Whatever political party aspires for the parliament must poll 5% of all registered votes.

By way of dealing with the political opposition, authors of the document included in it a quaint provision. Apart from scaling the nationwide 5% barrier, political parties are also supposed to poll at least 0.5% votes in every region. Talass population stands at 118,000 these days. Twelve political parties will be running for the parliament. It follows that eight parties only stand a chance of making the parliament in this particular region of Kyrgyzstan.

The opposition pooled efforts and compiled a common list of candidates for the parliament under the aegis of Ata-Meken or Fatherland. The local authorities never miss a chance to interfere with the parliamentary campaign of the opposition. It is denied permission to organize rallies, the buildings it rents for its actions are left without electric power. Offices of the opposition are regularly attacked.

The first TV channel owned by the state promotes the ruling party alone. Private TV networks, controlled by the state to a greater or smaller extent, put the opposition under financial pressure. They upped tariffs for the opposition tenfold and began putting its reels on the air either early in the morning or late at night.

Kyrgyzstan plunged into a state of instability with Bakiyev in office: governments come and go, salaries and pensions cannot catch up with the inflation rate, unemployment is something unbelievable, 50% of the population live below the subsistence minimum.

The political situation the new president engineered is actually a delayed-action bomb. Discontent is growing. A crisis is feared because both political forces and even the population of whole regions may refuse to recognize the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary election.

Temir Sariyev, Izvestia, December 12, 2007. © Translated by Ferghana.Ru